Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-20 46.825678 55.213750 64.429632 75.273797 87.650368 101.300363 117.457718
2024-10-27 32.018332 42.489591 55.155721 71.466233 91.759431 116.012955 147.011335
2024-11-03 26.099305 37.880099 53.190279 74.241736 102.086374 137.269587 184.639784
2024-11-10 22.522224 35.228389 52.747939 78.149310 113.419585 159.962906 225.185332
2024-11-17 19.681687 32.918787 52.152284 81.356782 123.631860 181.504407 265.357610
2024-11-24 16.736405 29.861617 49.910576 81.704255 129.538672 197.259942 298.398659
2024-12-01 13.792487 26.255256 46.260018 79.358528 131.044595 206.600810 322.710729
2024-12-08 11.946982 24.120658 44.552693 79.655271 136.288932 221.410215 355.471476
2024-12-15 10.569311 22.553005 43.519203 80.808889 142.783857 238.295252 392.060610
2024-12-22 8.307608 18.954519 38.532230 74.808143 137.227298 236.253269 399.750044
2024-12-29 7.524533 18.070303 38.206881 76.679501 144.601179 254.673408 439.778007
2025-01-05 6.528514 16.573472 36.546095 75.968272 147.473647 265.956213 469.039129
2025-01-12 6.383809 17.009722 38.889346 83.294526 165.704623 304.831124 547.130119
2025-01-19 5.043544 14.527839 35.175392 78.955846 163.156367 309.464172 570.572965
2025-01-26 4.565566 13.954933 35.270422 81.960472 174.138666 337.704180 634.810079
2025-02-02 4.240353 13.686866 35.964891 86.211484 187.753984 371.313553 709.958391
2025-02-09 3.894280 13.283061 36.287298 89.700250 200.150698 403.472564 784.289209
2025-02-16 3.396882 12.339133 35.214555 90.078098 206.449989 424.990790 841.130730
2025-02-23 2.815444 10.989235 32.941096 87.526814 206.605970 435.175001 878.313556
2025-03-02 2.461630 10.233920 32.006656 87.849608 212.609374 456.535756 936.632853
2025-03-09 2.194463 9.683645 31.506629 89.104373 220.627726 482.132118 1003.911094
2025-03-16 1.678037 8.101027 27.946659 82.575118 211.346114 473.658277 1007.418631
2025-03-23 1.524930 7.791986 27.876155 84.611935 220.969102 502.842865 1083.228808